The Korean government has revised the power supply plan drawn up by the preceding Moon Jae-in administration, raising the proportion of nuclear power generation from 23.9 percent to 32.8 percent by 2030, while lowering the share of renewable energy-based power generation from 30.2 percent to 21.5 percent.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy released a draft of the 10th Basic Plan for Electric Power Supply on Aug. 30. The plan predicts power supply and demand for the next 15 years.
The core part of the plan is the proportions of nuclear power generation and renewable energy-based power generation. The new plan reverses the preceding government’s policy to phase out nuclear power and increase the proportion of renewable energy.
However, no significant difference was made in the proportion of coal- and liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fired power generation. According to the 10th Basic Plan, the proportion of coal-fired power generation was set at 21.2 percent by 2030, 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous target of 21.8 percent set for the 2030 NDC. The basic plan sets the proportion of LNG-fired power generation in 2030 at 20.9 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 2030 NDC target of 19.5 percent.
The peak power demand in 2036 was projected to hit 117.3 GW. The committee that produced the basic plan predicted that electricity demand will climb at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent from this year to 2036. Accordingly, the target facility capacity for 2036 is set at 143.1GW, which reflects a reserve ratio of 22 percent on top of the highest power demand (117.3GW). The confirmed facility capacity is set at 142GW, which was set after conducting a facility status survey. It reflects the continued operation of 12 nuclear power plants with a combined capacity of 10.5GW and six new nuclear power plants with a combined capacity of 8.4GW.
The Yoon Suk-yul administration will maintain the policy of reducing thermal power generation. The 10th Basic Plan reflects the existing plan to shut down 26 coal-fired power plants (13.7 GW), which will become superannuated by 2036, and convert them to LNG-fired power plants. Five new LNG power plants will be built to secure 4.3GW.
The committee says that Korea will be able to reach the GHG reduction target in its 2030 NDC plan by implementing the 10th Basic Plan. Korea’s target of greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 suggested in the 2030 NDC plan is 149.9 million tons. This is 44.4 percent lower than Korea’s greenhouse gas emissions (269.6 million tons) in 2018.