25/06/2021

THAILAND DAILY

NEWSPAPER / MAGAZINE / PUBLISHER

baht-losing-against-the-dollar-as-vaccination-success-hopes-in-the-united-states-grow-stronger

Baht losing against the dollar as vaccination success hopes in the United States grow stronger

There may soon be even more pressure on the Thai government to push for a speedier vaccine drive. So far, the government of Prayut Chan ocha, by the Prime Minister’s own admission, has proceeded carefully with caution as its watchword. It comes as money market managers in centres such as London and Dublin are suddenly looking to find out more about herd immunity and medical facts related to vaccine technology as much as they are studying economic data as the vaccine drives in both the United States and the United Kingdom have begun to hold out hope of light at the end of the tunnel for economic recovery across the world. 

The US dollar has begun to strengthen in the last week against the baht and the outlook may well be for this trend to continue as the Thai currency has also begun to lose ground against the pound sterling. The reason is the growing impact of the vaccination drives in the United States and the United Kingdom which are also beginning to get the attention of the money markets.

baht-down-dollar-vaccination-success-united-states
Baht may go lower against the US dollar as the USA may be starting to see its way out of the pandemic crisis. Money brokers and economic analysts are looking to health clinics and inoculation activities in the United States and the United Kingdom, in the last week, to bet on currency and stock movements in the near term as experts still wait to establish a causal link between dropping infection numbers in both countries and initial success at getting the vaccine jabs out to the population when compared to dismal results seen in the European Union.

This week, in Bangkok, a key market strategist with Krungthai Bank was forecasting a narrow range of gain for the dollar to ฿30.15 against the Thai currency as he speculated that investors would be studying the latest US employment data and other economic intelligence before betting on future currency directions.

It comes as the Bank of Thailand has made it clear, in recent months, that the movement of the baht is tied to external forces more than government policy or economic fundamentals for the kingdom at this time.

Investors and market analysts are looking at medical data and vaccine activity in the UK and the US

However, there is a change sweeping through the market in the last week as speculators and analysts look closely at what is happening not on the money exchanges and bourses but in improvised clinics and medical facilities across the world especially in the United States and the United Kingdom where vaccination drives are pressing ahead.

Both the United States and the United Kingdom reported drops in infections since January 8th last

The US dollar has strengthened against the baht in the last week and the trend may continue as expectations for an economic recovery rise in the United States due to a lowering of the infection rate for the country since January 8th.

On that date, the United States recorded 308,309 cases whereas as of February 4th it had fallen steadily to 121,627.

Campaigns powering ahead in both countries

Many health experts are suggesting the reason is the US vaccination campaign which latest figures suggest has seen vaccines given to over 8.3% of the population since the rollout began on December 8th powered by a scaled up logistical operation implemented by the US Army.

A similar story is emerging in the United Kingdom where the pound sterling is rallying against the euro and even the US dollar due to the success of the vaccination programme there driven by the government of Boris Johnson.

UK using supermarkets working, on a commercial basis, hand in hand with the military to do the jabs

In the UK, the government has deployed supermarkets working on a commercial basis and the military to get the vaccine out to people in what appears to be a highly successful campaign.

The UK approach stands in stark contrast to Thailand’s cautious approach to a vaccine rollout as outlined by the Prime Minister Prayut Chan ocha and other senior ministers who have signalled that the kingdom would tread carefully so that Thai people were not used as guinea pigs for vaccines developed in record time last year.

The encouraging figures from the western countries were highlighted, this week, by Dr Prasit Watanapa of the Faculty of Medicine, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University as he urged the Thai public to more positively embrace a vaccine policy.

Impressive figures from the UK compared to an abysmal performance thus far in the European Union

Starting on the same date, the UK vaccination drive which has reached over 12.57% of the population and is gaining momentum, has seen infection numbers plummet from 68,053 on January 8th to 20,634 on February 4th.

In the meantime, the euro is plummeting as infection numbers rise in the UK’s neighbouring countries of France and Ireland where the vaccination rollout has stalled abysmally.

Money managers are taking notice

The trend has been detected by money managers worldwide who now see a clear link between the ability to vaccinate effectively and economic recovery due to the surprising efficacy of the vaccines.

‘The trend in terms of speed of vaccinations, and then in terms of the infection rates as a follow-through, gives a good insight into who will open up fastest,’ says Charles Diebel, a fund manager in Dublin with responsibility for €4.5 billion.

Many investors are now looking very closely at medical science and the effects of herd immunity than they are to central bank forecasts or assessments of stock values or currencies based on past economic data.

Still no confirmation of causality

Dr Prasit, this week, emphasised that causality has not been established yet the emerging figures look compelling.

On Wednesday the UK reached a figure of 15.8 doses per 100 people compared to 10.7 in the United States and only 3.2 in the European Union.

The emergence of this as a market phenomenon was also acknowledged, this week, by senior analyst Michael Brown of Caston FX in London when he said that a ‘vaccine spread trade is starting to develop’ because of the incoming data.

Baht may continue to weaken until the Thai vaccination campaign gets into gear later this year

For Thailand, it means the prospect of a weakening baht factor until the country’s vaccination campaign gains traction or until the campaigns in other countries allow again the prospect of unhindered foreign tourism to the kingdom to reopen. 

The Thai vaccination campaign is due to begin at a critical level in June according to all senior government officials speaking during the week.

We are told there will be smaller numbers of doses administered from the end of this month through to May to frontline medical staff and those most at risk.

Minister of Public Health, Anutin Charnvirakul, described this on Wednesday as testing the distribution network.

On the negative side, it may also mean a hit to medical sector exports which had been picking up while the pandemic raged across western countries.

German media question AstraZeneca jab

Another source of concern may be a curious report in German media during the week where it was reported that health officials in both Germany and Switzerland questioned the efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine for over 65s despite being used extensively in the United Kingdom for its successful campaign with other jabs.

Australia also behind the Oxford University product

Australia, like Thailand, is betting big on AstraZeneca’s vaccine developed in association with Oxford University.

Shares down-under took a dive, this week, after the German reports emerged particularly compared to stocks in New Zealand where the government has bet on the US Novamax jab developed as a product of Operation Warp Speed, an initiative of former US President Donald Trump, last year.

Overall, 2021 may be the year of vaccine economics as the value and efficacy of these medical treatments could be the key to restoring normal economic and social life across the world and in Thailand.

Or to put it simply, in a homespun term, health means wealth.

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Further reading:

Public Health minister suggests the kingdom’s vaccination plans are not tied to vaccine plant here

US and UK show a way to end vaccine nightmare says top doctor urging vaccination for ‘herd immunity’

Covid-19 vaccination plan to proceed in February although timescales are have not been made clear yet

Thailand’s vaccination programme will not be complete until the end of 2022 says Health Minister Anutin

Thanathorn facing serious Lèse-majesté charges after Facebook broadcast on vaccination strategy

PM puts brakes on the vaccination rollout with warning that caution is the kingdom’s watchword

Top virologist Dr Yong defends the use of the Sinovac vaccine to protect frontline medical staff at high risk

Gamblers and hosts at illegal gambling dens are being jailed as massive crackdown proceeds apace

Thailand faces its darkest hour against Covid-19 virus as vaccinations due to begin in March

PM criticises employers for using cheap, illegal migrant labour as officials remain on high alert

Thailand mobilising towards faster vaccinations as the Covid virus pandemic reaches new heights

Confirmed: Covid-19 second wave is here with the new outbreak seen as more serious than the first one

Covid-19 situation worsens as local infections now spread to 38 provinces with more red zones on the map

Prime Minister warns employers and bent officials over illegal migrant workers but calls for calm for now

Samut Sakhon flare-up spreads to other provinces but will be brought under control say top officials

Covid 19 outbreak in Samut Sakhon sees province placed under lockdown measures by local officials

Minister Anutin attacks infected Thai women whose actions set back plans to reopen the kingdom’s borders

Myanmar border on alert after shock local Covid positive test on Friday is linked to local smuggling trade

Thai army strengthens security along the Burmese border to defend against super infectious strain of Covid 19

Man visiting from Laos had TB, not Covid 19 as Udon Thani governor confirms no trace of Covid 19 virus

Top doc wants a halt to all foreigners entering Thailand again warning of a 2nd virus breakout due to the influx

Broken-hearted Swede fears history will repeat itself as shock parting left him stranded in Laos for 4 months

92% of suicides due to the virus are among the self-employed according to expert research group in academia

Foreigners arriving in Thailand in now increasing numbers targeted by a fake news campaign online

Visa amnesty agreed as emergency decree is linked to the controlled entry of Thais and Foreigners

Homeless people sheltering in closed Pattaya beer bars – Pattaya News report

Doors closed to a European diplomat who came from the airport to a Bangkok condo building after flight

Entry for privileged groups tightened up as flack swirls over Egyptian military’s flying visit to Rayong

Mystery Egyptian military flight revealed as exposing Thailand to the Covid 19 virus in Rayong

Agony for stranded western foreigners as ‘Fast-track’ Chinese charter flight jets in from Shanghai

Move to prevent a tourism wipeout as minister pushes 3 phase plan especially targeting Chinese tourists

IATA calls on countries like Thailand to think again over quarantine schemes and travel curbs costing jobs

Only 2,000 foreigners have yet registered to be reunited with love ones as tourism to also reopen

Thai public says No to foreign tourism and also predicts 1 to 2 years for travel to return to normal

Only hope for foreigners locked out of Thailand as easing continues with strict controls on entry

Ministers suggest an easing of the travel ban for some tourists but a continued state of emergency

Thailand plans to prioritise Asian countries in its search for safe Covid 19 ‘tourism bubble’ partners

Australian envoy says his embassy and others continue to work on helping stranded foreigners get home

Access to Thailand opening up. It will be cautious, quite expensive with tight regulation and ministry controls

Thai security chief suggests a full reopening of the kingdom to international flights from July 1st

New normal for foreigners seeking access to Thailand even after flights resume if virus persists as a factor

Growing concern and frustration among a large number of expats cut off from their families in Thailand

Australian man’s heartbreak cut off from his Thai wife – begs to be included on repatriation flights

Thailand extends ban on inbound flights until July 1st at the earliest – blow to foreigners and tourism

Spouses of Thai wives down under denied access to limited repatriation flights from Australia this week

Australian retiree is spending his own pension money on supporting the poor during the crisis in Chiang Mai

About the Author

Joseph Anthony is an expat from Ireland who has lived in Thailand for the last decade. He has worked extensively in the media including editorial positions in Ireland and Thailand. He is focused on economic and business stories in Thailand as well as the expat lifestyle.

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