28/06/2022

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australia-politics-live-updates:-rba-to-decide-on-historic-interest-rise-amid-high-inflation-|-australia-news

Australia politics live updates: RBA to decide on historic interest rise amid high inflation | Australia news

There is polling today, released by the Australia Institute, showing Liberal MP Tim Wilson is in danger of losing his seat to independent challenger Zoe Daniels.

Wilson has been running very hard on the “fake independent” line.

Today he has had an op-ed in the Australian where he claims independent candidates (he uses scare quotes around independent) are trying to override democracy.

Yup.

Good morning

Happy 23 day – number of choice for Michael Jordan, Shane Warne and any sporting wonder who thinks they have a shot.

It’s RBA meeting day where the reserve bank will decide whether the underlying rate of inflation (inflation when you take out the stuff that fluctuates in price) of 3.6% is enough to force it to move the cash rate target.

The RBA has previously said it wants inflation to be between 2% and 3%. So it’s above that. But it also doesn’t want to cause inflation in Australia to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Economists who know a lot more than me about this say Australia is facing a supply-side inflation issue. Not demand side, which is what we usually think of when we think inflation. So you don’t want to panic people into thinking their money will be worth less, because then they go out and spend while they can, buying what they believe which in turn, increases inflation. It’s a delicate balance for the RBA and one that has probably given governor Phil Lowe a couple of sleepless nights. If interest rates move, it’ll be the first time since 2007 that there has been an interest rate increase in the middle of an election campaign.

The RBA could signal it’s about to move rates. Or it could move them a smidge to show it’s willing to move rates. Either way it’s a pretty big stress for people who are already on the bubble.

It’s also of concern to Scott Morrison who has tried to build his re-election campaign around being a better manager of the economy. He wanted to talk about cost of living but now it’s an election issue because it’s an issue for millions of people, and that makes the narrative much harder to control. Morrison has started the rebrand – telling reporters he doesn’t see these things “through a political lens”. It’s all about people, you see. And the choice they have about who is better to manage the coming economic changes (which of course makes it about him, but that’s just details).

Sarah Martin has the latest Essential poll which shows that choice is not quite as cut and dried as Morrison would like it:

At the mid-point of the six-week election campaign, the Guardian Essential poll of 1,500 respondents finds the primary vote for both Labor and the Coalition largely unmoved, despite billions of dollars in election promises being made as voters tune into the contest.

But while primary support is flatlining, Labor retains a lead over the Coalition of 49% to 45% on a two-party preferred “plus” measure.

The challenge to connect with disengaged voters is also highlighted by the fact that 17% of people say they have not been paying any attention to the news, advertising or updates from the federal election campaign, and 33% saying they have only been paying little attention.

… On the cost of living, 40% of voters judged that Labor was best placed to manage the issue, compared to 30% who trust the Coalition on the issue, and 30% who deemed both parties to be no different.

We’ll bring you the blow by blow of the day. As usual you have the Guardian Canberra crew of Katharine Murphy, Sarah Martin, Paul Karp, Josh Butler and Daniel Hurst with Amy Remeikis on the blog.

It’s a mint slice for breakfast kinda morning.

Ready?

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